Claiming that Peronism is dead in Argentina has always been a bold statement. Now, after the legislative elections in the province of Buenos Aires, it would be downright naïve. Javier Milei’s defeat where 40 % of Argentines vote is not just a stumble, it is a wake-up call that shakes up the entire governing party, laying bare the limitations of its alliance with Mauricio Macri’s PRO party and leaving a critical question hanging in the air: How can a country in crisis be governed with an empowered opposition in its largest province?

No spin can be put on the numbers to make the government look better: Peronism united under the Fuerza Patria ticket secured 47.2 % of the vote, against 33.7 % of La Libertad Avanza, with PRO reduced to an irrelevant appendage.

That is a difference of more than one million votes. Milei, who had turned these provincial elections into a referendum on his administration, ended up suffering setbacks on all fronts: politics, the economy, and even within his inner circle, pierced by the corruption scandal involving his sister Karina.

The president spoke of a “clear defeat,” but gave no signs of changing course. On the contrary, he promised to “speed up” reforms and adjustments, as if the message at the polls were nothing but a minor detail. That disdain could cost him dearly.

The Buenos Aires election was not an isolated episode or an electoral whim, but rather the crystallization of social discontent with a government that, in less than two years, cut wages and pensions, demolished consumer spending power, and confronted middle and lower class sectors with a messianic and intolerant rhetoric.

The reaction of the markets following the results was as eloquent as the ballot boxes: the US dollar surged to 1,470 pesos, Argentina’s stocks on Wall Street plummeted, and inflationary pressure heated up. The very same financial players that Milei had vowed to seduce are now showing distrust toward a weakened government that is unable to generate governability and faces an uncertain future in Congress.

The problem is not only the electoral defeat, but rather that it coincides with several crises: an economic crisis, a political crisis, and a crisis of credibility. Milei came to power surrounded by the aura of a ruthless outsider who came to “put the final nail in the coffin of Kirchnerism.” Just 20 months later, it is he who is tottering, besieged by a Peronism that is demonstrating, once again, its historical resilience.

In this context, the figure of Axel Kicillof emerges with unexpected strength. As Governor of Buenos Aires, he has not only managed to hold on to the province, he succeeded in painting it the light blue color of his party, even in the rural areas, where Peronism had not seen a victory in almost two decades. That conquering of historically anti-Peronist territories is no minor detail: it marks the failure of the “short romance” between the countryside and Milei, and it opens up the possibility for a profound political realignment.

The outlook that opens up for the president is turbulent. Congress has already shown its teeth by lifting a presidential veto and moving forward with laws that limit the use of decrees. The opposition smells blood and will seek to expand its margin of maneuver in the lead up to October, when the national parliament renews part of its seats.

Milei is trapped between his own inflammatory rhetoric and the need to negotiate in order to survive. His unwillingness to engage in dialogue, his obsession with ideological extremism, and his emotional dependence on his sister Karina leave him with little room to patch up relationships. The risk is that his term in office will continue to be consumed by constant confrontation, with the economy as hostage and society as victim.

What happened in Buenos Aires goes beyond the province. It is a shock to Argentine politics, a reminder that Peronism not only resists, but is capable of reinventing itself, and a warning to Milei that the legitimacy earned at the polls is not a blank check, but an asset that can quickly evaporate under the pressure of reality.

The world’s reading of the election confirms it: from Spain’s El País to Bloomberg, international media outlets coincide in seeing this defeat as a serious blow to the Argentine government. The markets were alarmed, neighboring governments took note, and even Milei’s old allies in the regional Right opted for a prudent silence.